Nuclear Power Plants 2024: Global Market Remains at Rock Bottom - Nuclear Power Too Expensive For AI Applications
Muenster, Germany - The global market for nuclear power plants will continue to stagnate at a very low level in 2024. Despite potential growth in demand for electricity, for example from AI applications, there are currently no signs of a renaissance in nuclear energy.
No global growth momentum for nuclear power plants in 2024
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), only six new nuclear power plants were commissioned worldwide in 2024. At the same time, four older reactors were decommissioned, resulting in a net increase of just two new plants.
The new reactors, which have a total capacity of 6,813 MW, are located in the United Arab Emirates (Barakah-4, 1,310 MW), China (Fangchenggang-4, 1,000 MW and Zhangzhou-1, 1,126 MW), India (Kakrapar-4, 630 MW), France (Flamanville-3, 1,630 MW) and the USA (Vogtle-4, 1,117 MW). In the same period, old nuclear power plants with a capacity of 2,891 MW were decommissioned, including Kursk-2 (925 MW) in Russia, Maanshan-1 (936 MW) in Taiwan and the two Pickering nuclear power plants 1 and 4 (515 MW each) in Canada.
Nuclear power plants for AI data centers: too slow and too expensive
According to IWR-Institute, the reasons for the weak growth of the global market for nuclear power plants remain unchanged: extremely high investment costs, very long construction times of 10 - 15 years and equally extremely high financing risks, which can practically only be assumed by state-owned companies. In addition, the market for nuclear power plants relies on a very small number of companies - mostly state-owned enterprises - that are able to build and export nuclear power plants at all.
One example of the enormous costs and long construction times of nuclear power plants is the French nuclear power plant Flamanville 3, which went into operation in 2024. In 2006, the construction costs for Flamanville 3 were estimated at 3.2 to 3.3 billion euros, with a planned construction period of 5 years. According to the French Court of Auditors, the costs have now exploded to 23.7 billion euros after 17 years of construction; with a return of 4 percent, for example, the selling price for nuclear power should already be 12.2 cents per kilowatt hour.
“In view of the potential increase in electricity demand from AI data centers, nuclear power plants are not a competitive alternative to renewable energies. Building a new nuclear power plant simply takes too long, is extremely expensive and the financing remains risky,” says IWR CEO Dr. Norbert Allnoch.
Mini-nuclear power plants without operational showcase projects not an alternative
Even small, modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), which are advertised as a more cost-effective and flexible solution, cannot currently solve the fundamental problems of nuclear power, according to the IWR. One example of the market difficulties of mini-nuclear power plants is the planned Idaho flagship project of Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) in the USA; the SMR project was abandoned due to exploding construction costs and the excessive cost of nuclear power.
There is also no operational SMR showcase project to date that could provide a market development and perspective for mini nuclear power plants. In the USA, only the SMR developer Nuscale has so far received a certified design from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. There has not yet been any concrete implementation.
Renewable energies faster and cheaper: China could overtake the entire global nuclear power production with solar power by 2030
The very long construction times and high costs of nuclear power plants are not only slowing down global market development, they are also putting nuclear power plants at a competitive disadvantage compared to renewable energies. While the net addition of nuclear power capacity will reach 3,922 MW worldwide in 2024, China alone has installed an incredible record 277,000 MW of new solar power plants in the same period.
Allnoch continues: “If China continues its current pace of building solar power plants until 2030, the country will overtake the current power generation of the entire global nuclear power plant fleet by the end of the decade with its own low-cost solar power.”
According to the IWR, the construction of new nuclear power plants will not be able to keep up with the rapid pace of renewable power plant construction.
Source: IWR Online, 24 Jan 2025
