UN Report Warns: Climate Plans Fall Short - World Heading Toward Dangerous 2.8°C of Global Warming
Nairobi (Kenya) - The new Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) shows that global climate goals are increasingly slipping out of reach. Despite updated pledges by governments, the path to limiting global warming to 1.5°C appears increasingly unattainable - with serious consequences for the economy, the environment, and society.
Little Progress Despite New Pledges
In its Emissions Gap Report 2025, titled Off Target, UNEP warns that current national climate pledges show little effect. The projected global warming by the end of the century now stands at 2.3 to 2.5°C, compared to 2.6 to 2.8°C last year. If only existing policies were implemented, warming could reach up to 2.8°C.
About 0.1°C of the apparent improvement is due to methodological adjustments - one-third of the total gain - and UNEP notes that the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will offset another 0.1°C. This means that the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have made almost no real difference. Countries remain far from the goal of keeping warming “well below 2°C” and ideally limiting it to 1.5°C.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “ Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender.“ He urged nations to dramatically raise their ambitions: “1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen also criticized the lack of speed: “Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target.” Progress exists, she noted, but it is far too slow: “We still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
Emissions Keep Rising - Geopolitical Challenges Slow Climate Action
By the end of September 2025, only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement - responsible for 63% of global emissions - had submitted or announced new climate targets for 2035. Global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2024, reaching about 57.7 gigatonnes of CO? equivalent, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year.
To stay on a 2°C pathway, emissions would need to fall by about 25% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels - and by around 40% or more to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. However, the current national contributions would only achieve about a 15% reduction by 2035 - far below what is required.
A major obstacle remains the geopolitical environment. Conflicts, economic uncertainties, and insufficient financial support for developing countries are hampering progress. The G20 nations, responsible for 77% of global emissions, are particularly under scrutiny: they collectively continue to miss their own targets, with their emissions rising by 0.7% in 2024.
At the same time, the report points to existing solutions: „Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience,” Andersen emphasized.
Conclusion: The Window of Opportunity Is Closing Fast
The UNEP report paints a clear picture: without immediate and deep emission cuts, the world will overshoot the 1.5°C target by a wide margin. While countermeasures remain technically feasible, the political and economic window is rapidly narrowing.
The report shows that a scenario of “rapid mitigation from 2025 onward” could limit the 1.5°C overshoot to about 0.3°C and enable a return to 1.5°C by 2100. Every fraction of a degree avoided matters - for the stability of the climate as well as for the global economy.
Source: IWR Online, 07 Nov 2025
