Study: Ambitious Grid Package Threatens Expansion of Wind and Solar Energy – 32 GW of Wind and Solar Capacity and €45 Billion in Investments at Risk
Hamburg (Germany) - The grid package planned by Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche threatens to significantly slow down the expansion of wind and solar energy in Germany. According to a recent study, wind and solar projects with a capacity of 32 gigawatts and private investments totaling €45 billion could be at risk—particularly in Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, and Bavaria.
Massive Risks for Wind and Solar Projects
For onshore wind energy, the study shows that around 23 gigawatts of already approved or pending projects are at risk. This corresponds to about 30 percent of upcoming projects and roughly €40 billion in investments. The impact on photovoltaics would also be significant: about 9.2 gigawatts of immediately implementable open-space PV projects—around 28 percent of this segment—could be lost. The investment volume amounts to roughly €4.9 billion, which is approximately equivalent to Germany’s entire annual new PV open-space capacity.
Carolin Dähling, Head of Policy and Communications at Green Planet Energy, comments: "Fossil fuel price spikes burden the entire country. Blocking billions for wind and solar right now would be a mistake with predictable consequences. That is exactly what the grid package threatens: instead of enabling cheap, regional energy, the ministry is calling into question projects that are already ready to start."
Districts in East Frisia, Saxony-Anhalt, Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein, and Bavaria would be particularly affected. The ministry makes no distinction between technologies: this means that in regions with strong PV expansion, new wind projects are at risk—and vice versa. Even in Bavaria, where there are currently very few wind turbines, new projects could be threatened due to the high share of PV. Image: Affected regions – where the grid package slows down wind and solar projects © Green Planet Energy
The study also emphasizes that it is not just individual plants but entire clusters of projects that were intended to be realized in the coming years. Delays could noticeably affect regional value creation, local employment, and additional tax revenues.
Investment Risks from Redispatch Rules
A central point of contention is the planned redispatch reservation: operators would no longer receive compensation for curtailments of their plants. Tim Höfer, energy market expert at Enervis, warns: "Revenue risks increase because it is not reliably predictable whether a region will be designated as a capacity-limited grid area during the project period. The lack of financial compensation further reduces profitability."
Additionally, years with strong wind could increase the number of affected regions. Even if the "capacity-limited" status is later eased, it would remain in effect for up to three years. This creates uncertainty for investors, increases the costs of tenders, and could significantly delay the implementation of new projects.
Green Planet Energy calls for a fundamental revision of the grid package and for bottlenecks to be addressed at their source: through grid expansion, digitalization, and flexibility options. Dähling emphasizes: "Blaming renewables for grid problems is like blaming water for leaky pipes. Wind and solar are not the problem—it’s grids that have not been modernized for years. The federal government must now ensure that grid operators do their job and make the grids fit for more renewables."
Source: IWR Online, 26 Mar 2026
