Scatec Shares Plunge Almost 18 Percent by Midday – Solar and Storage Operator Cuts Earnings Guidance Significantly
Oslo – Shares in Norwegian solar and storage operator Scatec fell almost 18 percent on Thursday morning after the company substantially lowered its 2026 earnings guidance. Scatec cited regulatory intervention, the impact of the war in Ukraine, project delays and currency effects.
Scatec Lowers EBITDA Guidance for the Second Time
Scatec has cut its 2026 guidance for proportionate EBITDA in its power production business by NOK 300 million (around EUR 28.5 million) to NOK 3.3 billion to NOK 3.6 billion (around EUR 314 million to EUR 342 million). The company had previously expected NOK 3.6 billion to NOK 3.9 billion (around EUR 342 million to EUR 371 million).
In the first quarter, Scatec had already reduced its original guidance of NOK 3.8 billion to NOK 4.1 billion (around EUR 361 million to EUR 390 million) by NOK 200 million (around EUR 19 million). The midpoint of the current EBITDA range is therefore 12.7 percent below the original full-year expectation.
On the Stuttgart exchange, shares in the company, which is listed in the RENIXX World renewable energy stock index, fell 17.8 percent to EUR 7.545 by midday on Thursday (as of 12:04 p.m.).
Philippines: Intervention in Reserve Market Changes Earnings Outlook
In the Philippines, the energy regulator ERC provisionally suspended trading and settlement in the reserve market of the WESM electricity spot market on October 12, 2026. The background is high costs for ancillary services. The responsible market organisations are to propose a new market structure within six months, while longer-term contracts are intended to secure reserve procurement.
The decision is particularly relevant for Scatec. The company has a stake in the Philippine hydropower market through the joint venture SNAP. In August, Scatec had lowered its power production guidance by 50 GWh due to weaker water flows, but confirmed its EBITDA expectation. During the conference call at the time, management pointed to higher power and ancillary service prices that could partly offset lower generation volumes.
The market suspension partly calls these revenue expectations into question. Scatec has not quantified which revenues are specifically affected. SNAP also holds longer-term contracts for ancillary services.
War in Ukraine and Grid Connection Problems Weigh on Further Projects
In Ukraine, intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure are affecting the operation of Scatec's five solar parks with a combined capacity of 336 MW. Repairs to a plant that was directly hit in 2025 are delayed. According to the company, country risk assessments and long-term power price expectations are also deteriorating.
In South Africa, the commercial start of operations of the Mogobe battery storage system, with 103 MW of power capacity and 412 MWh of storage capacity, is delayed due to outstanding grid connection work by the state utility Eskom.
In Pakistan, the tariff adjustment previously expected for 2026 is likely to be delayed. In addition, according to Scatec, weaker local operating currencies against the Norwegian krone are weighing on the EBITDA guidance.
Differing Risks Complicate Earnings Planning
The pressures differ in their economic impact: while regulatory intervention can alter existing revenue expectations, project delays push back the start of new income. In Ukraine, there are also longer-term risks for the valuation of existing assets.
Scatec has not broken down how much each factor weighs on the guidance. Further information is due with the quarterly results on October 30, 2026.
Source: IWR Online, 22 Oct 2026
