Despite Trump’s Energy Policy, Solar Farms Supply Most of Additional US Electricity as Generation Heads for Record
Washington – US power sector generation is forecast to rise 2.7 percent in 2026 to a record of nearly 4,390 TWh. According to the latest forecast by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), large solar farms will supply the largest share of the additional electricity. Their share of power generation is expected to climb to almost 10 percent in 2027.
US Solar Boom Continues: EIA Expects 72 GW of New Solar Capacity by End of 2027 The EIA published its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, 2026. For 2026 and 2027, it expects 72 GW of new solar farms and 20 GW of new wind turbines to be built. Renewable energy expansion is therefore set to continue at a high pace over the next two years despite the tighter incentives. The share of large solar farms in US power generation is forecast to rise from 7 percent in 2025 to almost 10 percent in 2027. For wind energy, the EIA expects an increase from 11 to 12 percent.
Generation growth is thus driven primarily by renewable energy. Combined electricity production from natural gas, coal and nuclear power, by contrast, is expected to remain largely stable through 2027. Natural gas remains the most important single source of electricity with a share of just under 40 percent, while the share of coal is projected to fall from 17 percent in 2025 to 15 percent in 2027. Operators plan to retire coal-fired power plants totalling 13 GW by the end of 2027.
For 2027, the EIA expects total power generation to rise a further 1.2 percent. While growth in 2026 is driven mainly by rising commercial demand and higher cooling needs during the hot summer, the agency expects increasing commercial and industrial demand in 2027. A likely milder summer, by contrast, is expected to dampen household electricity consumption.
Trump Tightens Support for Wind and Solar – Gas-Fired Power Plants Benefit from Eased Environmental Requirements The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July 2025, tightened the tax incentives for wind and solar projects. For projects that begin construction after July 4, 2026, the relevant tax credits generally lapse if the plants are not in operation by the end of 2027. Different rules apply to projects that started earlier.
An EIA cost comparison shows that new wind and solar farms can compete with new gas-fired power plants on levelised cost of electricity. The agency calculates USD 56.75 per MWh for onshore wind farms and USD 58.33 per MWh for solar farms. For combined-cycle gas-fired power plants, the calculated costs range from USD 55.51 to USD 77.46 per MWh, depending on the environmental requirements assumed.
The calculations refer to power plants entering operation in 2031. The higher cost figure for gas-fired power plants is based on an assumed utilisation cap of 40 percent. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has adopted the repeal of the underlying CO2 capture requirement for new gas-fired power plants. The repeal takes effect on November 16, 2026. Without this restriction, the calculated levelised cost of electricity for new gas-fired power plants is roughly on a par with wind and solar energy.
US Power Market: Renewables Drive Growth Despite Political Headwinds The EIA forecast shows that the Trump administration’s energy policy shift has so far not reversed the short-term growth trend of renewable energy. Despite tighter incentives, the agency expects strong expansion of wind and solar energy through the end of 2027. The additional power generation comes predominantly from renewable sources.
Whether this trend continues beyond 2027 remains open. The new support rules for wind and solar energy and the eased environmental requirements for gas-fired power plants are changing competitive conditions in the US power market. However, the EIA forecast shows that renewable energy is expected to supply the largest share of additional electricity through 2027, despite this policy shift.
Source: IWR Online, 11 Nov 2026
