Poland Commissions First Offshore Wind Farm – Study Highlights Major Potential and Structural Bottlenecks

Warsaw, Polen – Installed onshore wind capacity in Poland exceeded 11 GW at the end of 2025. This is according to the report “Wind Energy in Poland 2026”, which shows that the country is at a turning point, with rising investment activity but also structural bottlenecks shaping the pace of the energy transition.

The report, prepared with participation from the Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA), advisory firm TPA and international law firm DWF (UK), provides a comprehensive assessment of both the onshore and offshore wind markets. According to the study, the largest barrier in the onshore segment is unexpected administrative constraints. At the same time, Poland is set to feed first electricity from its inaugural offshore wind farm into the grid in 2026. Government expansion targets are partly being slowed by presidential vetoes.

Onshore wind: mature market facing grid constraints and land-use pressure

Despite installed capacity exceeding 11 GW, the available potential remains far from fully utilised. In 2025 alone, 4,897 grid connection applications were rejected, while pending applications exceeded a combined capacity of 107 GW. A revision of the grid law that came into force in early 2026 aims to streamline connection procedures. The industry considers this a step in the right direction, but insufficient to resolve structural constraints.

Economic viability remains fundamentally intact, according to the study. A model 30 MW wind farm with a 35 percent capacity factor yields an internal rate of return (IRR) of 9.7 percent, while levelised cost of energy (LCOE) ranges between PLN 240–320/MWh (approx. EUR 57–75/MWh). However, practical barriers remain significant, including fragmented spatial planning, the 700-metre setback rule, military exclusion zones and limited grid capacity.

Offshore wind: Baltic Power nearing completion – first power in 2026

In the offshore segment, projects with a combined capacity of around 18 GW have been approved, with investment decisions already taken for approximately 5 GW. In the December 2025 Phase II auction under the Contract for Difference (CfD) scheme, support was awarded for an additional 3.435 GW at prices between PLN 476.88 and 492.32/MWh (approx. EUR 112–116/MWh). Overall, around 10 GW of offshore capacity is expected to be operational by 2032.

The report highlights significant challenges. The development timeline from initial site approval to commissioning of Poland’s first offshore wind farm has taken 14 years. For a representative 800 MW project, Baker Tilly TPA models CAPEX of PLN 19.1 million/MW (approx. EUR 4.5 million/MW) and LCOE of around PLN 483/MWh (approx. EUR 114/MWh). The local content share in Phase I supply chains currently stands at 20–40 percent, meaning a substantial share of value creation still flows abroad.

Poland’s first offshore wind farm, Baltic Power, with a capacity of 1.2 GW, is expected to go online in 2026. The joint venture between Polish energy group Orlen and Canada’s Northland Power is installing 76 Vestas turbines of the V236-15.0 MW type, each with a capacity of 15 MW.

Domestic industry and local value creation move into focus

A special section of the report focuses on strengthening Poland’s renewable energy manufacturing base. The government’s “Local First” strategy and EU requirements under the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) are increasingly making local value creation a key element of national procurement policy.

In a 33 GW offshore scenario, Baker Tilly TPA estimates cumulative gross value added of PLN 346 billion (approx. EUR 82 billion), fiscal revenues of more than PLN 56 billion (approx. EUR 13 billion), and employment effects of around 102,000 FTE-years, assuming an average local content rate of just under 32 percent.

Polish government: ambitious targets, politically contested implementation

The Polish government has set ambitious expansion targets: onshore wind capacity is expected to reach around 16 GW by 2030, while offshore capacity in the Baltic Sea is planned to reach 18 GW by 2040. However, the Ministry of Energy recently presented a more conservative scenario, projecting only 10.8 GW of onshore and 11.8 GW of offshore capacity by 2040.

The revision reflects, among other factors, a presidential veto against easing wind turbine setback rules in 2025, which significantly restricts the pipeline for new onshore projects. The Polish Wind Energy Association (PWEA) criticises the revised outlook and warns of significantly higher electricity prices if the energy transition slows.

Source: IWR Online, 10 Jun 2026