Mediterranean Region Eyes Growth Surge as Wind and Solar Pipeline Reaches 552 GW
Münster – The expansion of renewable energy is increasingly taking on a cross-border dimension in southern Europe. While North Sea countries are already advancing offshore wind and shared energy infrastructure, the Mediterranean region is emerging as another major cross-border growth area for wind and solar power.
Mediterranean Pipeline of 552 GW – Focus Shifting South
According to the GEM study, 251.6 GW of wind and solar capacity is currently operating in the region under review, comprising 100.9 GW of wind power and 150.7 GW of solar power. This compares with a pipeline of 552 GW of announced or in-development large-scale wind and solar projects. GEM lists planned commissioning dates by the end of 2030 for 361.3 GW of this capacity. The underlying wind and solar trackers reflect data as of February 2026.
The region examined by GEM extends beyond the immediate Mediterranean coastal states. It comprises eleven countries in southern Europe as well as 13 countries and territories in North Africa and Southwest Asia, including Portugal, Jordan and Western Sahara.
GEM's data point to a stronger future weighting toward North Africa and Southwest Asia. Around 82.5 percent of the region's currently operating wind and solar capacity is located in Europe. Among large wind and solar projects with planned start of operations by 2030, however, Europe accounts for 51 percent and Southwest Asia and North Africa for 49 percent. The figures are only partly comparable: operating capacity includes distributed solar installations, whereas GEM's data on planned projects cover only solar installations above 20 MW and wind projects above 10 MW.
The pipeline is also substantial by international standards. According to GEM, the 552 GW slightly exceeds the entire planned power generation capacity across all energy sources in the United States, at 548.3 GW. Around ten percent of the world's planned large-scale wind and solar capacity with commercial operation scheduled by the end of 2030 is located in the Mediterranean region as defined by GEM.
Despite the large project pipeline, GEM assesses that the currently foreseeable expansion is insufficient to meet already-stated capacity targets. The TeraMed initiative, for instance, is targeting 1,000 GW of installed renewable capacity in the Mediterranean region by 2030; current GEM data show the pipeline meeting 38 percent of that target. Med-TSO's ten-year grid development plan, which examines three scenarios with differing shares of renewable energy, likewise shows only the "Inertial" scenario on track according to current projections.
Spain and Egypt Emerge as Growth Poles as Project Delivery Remains Key
On the European side, Spain holds a key position. GEM tracks 108.8 GW of planned large-scale solar capacity and 56.5 GW of wind capacity in the country. Spain ranks first in Europe for its large-scale solar project pipeline and third for wind, behind the United Kingdom and Sweden. Of a combined 165.3 GW of planned wind and solar capacity, 8.4 GW — around five percent — is currently under construction, while a further 132 GW is in early-stage development. GEM notes that such projects have typically already secured regulatory approval or financing and, in the organization's assessment, are on track for delivery.
On the southern side of the Mediterranean, Egypt is emerging as a second focal point. Against roughly 6.3 GW of currently installed wind and solar capacity, the country has 94.6 GW in development, comprising 46.7 GW of large-scale solar and 47.9 GW of wind projects. GEM lists a planned commercial start of operations by the end of 2030 for 22.9 GW, or around a quarter of the pipeline. Around 37.7 GW of the planned capacity is linked to green hydrogen production projects.
Spain and Egypt thus represent two distinct development paths. While Spain already has a well-established wind and solar market, Egypt is tying its planned expansion more closely to industrial applications such as green hydrogen production.
USD 792 Billion Investment Need – Financing Remains a Key Hurdle
Whether the large project pipeline actually translates into new generation capacity depends heavily on financing and permitting. GEM estimates total investment costs for the region's planned large-scale wind and solar projects at around USD 792 billion.
At the same time, access to capital varies significantly by region. GEM cites data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) showing that in 2024, around USD 137 billion, or 17 percent of global renewable energy investment, went to Europe, compared with USD 21 billion, or 2.6 percent, for the region GEM classifies as Southwest Asia and North Africa.
Power Grids Between Europe and North Africa – Interconnector Expansion Becomes a Key Factor
Beyond new generation capacity, deeper energy-market integration across the Mediterranean also requires expanding cross-border power grids. GEM considers the region's existing transmission and interconnector infrastructure inadequate and, alongside financing and permitting, identifies it as a central challenge for further wind and solar expansion.
Power links between Europe and North Africa have existed between Spain and Morocco for decades. Two 400-kV connections across the Strait of Gibraltar, commissioned in 1997 and 2006, have a combined technical capacity of 1,400 MW. According to current data from Spanish grid operator Red Eléctrica, commercially usable exchange capacity stands at 900 MW from Spain to Morocco and 600 MW in the opposite direction. A third link, adding a further 700 MW, was agreed between the two countries in 2019 but has not yet entered service.
A further link between Europe and North Africa is planned in the central Mediterranean under the ELMED project. Developed by grid operators Terna and STEG, the project is designed to connect Tunisia with Sicily via a roughly 220-kilometer high-voltage direct current (HVDC) link, with planned transmission capacity of 600 MW. The European Union is supporting the project with around EUR 307.6 million through the Connecting Europe Facility, while the World Bank provided a further USD 268.4 million in financing in 2023.
In June 2026, Terna and STEG also awarded Hitachi Energy the contract to build converter stations in Italy and Tunisia. According to the World Bank, ELMED is expected to enter service by 2028. The link is designed to enable power trading in both directions and, in particular, to support the integration of additional renewable power generation.
Existing and planned interconnectors also illustrate the scale of the infrastructure challenge ahead. A 552 GW wind and solar project pipeline currently faces comparatively limited cross-border transmission capacity between Europe and North Africa. Expansion of generation capacity and of cross-border power grids will therefore increasingly need to be planned in tandem.
The significance of the 552 GW project pipeline will not be determined by the number of announced wind and solar projects alone. What will matter is how much of that capacity is financed, permitted and ultimately built — and whether the necessary power grids and cross-border links are developed in parallel. Alongside expansion targets, COP31 in Antalya is set to place particular focus on their practical implementation.
Source: IWR Online, 28 Sep 2026
